For the past two years, Tua Tagovailoa has been quite disappointing. The fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft didn’t turn out to be the franchise guy from the Miami Dolphins and his fantasy football stock is much worse. He’s in a massive third year, but whether that’s good or bad is up to him.
The Dolphins made one of the biggest moves of the offseason when they traded for Tyreek Hill, one of the best wide receivers in the game and, apparently, a huge Tua fan. His speed and elusiveness will unlock another level for offense as a downline threat and someone who can break up big wins with short routes.
Hill was one of many additions Miami made to its offense along with star tackle Terron Armstead, running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr. The Dolphins put as much talent around as possible. of their young quarterback. For that reason, it really is a shut-up or shut-up time for the former Alabama star in the 2022 season.
Although Tagovailoa and the Dolphins should improve this season, fantasy football managers may not have much faith in the third-year quarterback. Is Tua a worthwhile risk to take in the 2022 fantasy football season? It needs to be proven that it is.
Tua Tagovailoa 2022 fantasy football outlook
The past two seasons haven’t given much confidence that Tua Tagovailoa is on a trajectory to stardom. In 13 games last season, Tagovailoa had 2,653 yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a 67.8% completion percentage.
The turnover trend has plagued Tagovailoa and made him a very fragile fantasy football prospect. At the moment he doesn’t look like a QB1 at all and in many leagues he might not even be worth a roster spot. His fantasy value stems from the idea of what the new-look supporting cast around him can help him do and what improvements he can make, both of which carry a certain optimism.
Miami has put Tua in a great position when it comes to action plays and RPO. Building these concepts with him should enable him to produce better. The personnel around him are built to do that while keeping honest defenses in the deep passing game tanks for both Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Big target in tight end Mike Gesicki also helps, as does Wilson as another solid target.
But the Dolphins don’t have to become a home factory. In fact, relying on the tendencies of a West Coast style attack is just the way to go. Tagovailoa’s phenomenal accuracy on short passes will work beautifully with Hill, who embarrasses defenders. Tagovailoa has enough arm accuracy to make field plays, but not every throw in the book. There are legitimate reasons to expect even a big jump now that Tua has a very strong supporting cast around him.
Of course, all the talent in the world can’t hide a quarterback’s ability to read the pitch and make the right shots. For someone who doesn’t have a super strong arm, it’s harder to achieve. But Tagovailoa still has the ability to improve and has a skill set that works perfectly with his new WR1. Although Hill likely won’t score on the longball plays he created with Patrick Mahomes, he will be a much-used weapon that could last a massive year. His young QB will be the main beneficiary.
If you like to live dangerously, Tagovailoa could be a fringe QB1 thanks to all the resources Miami throws around him and the potential for that to bring out the best in him. A new offensive-minded coach, one of the most explosive wides in the game, several other solid weapons and an improved offensive line could help him enjoy a breakout campaign. If opponents in your league like to take quarterbacks early in the draft, leaving you with unsavory QB1 options, Tagovailoa is worth picking up as a high-potential backup.
Tagovailoa has all the resources he needs to become one of the top 20 quarterbacks in real and fantasy football. The opportunity for boom or bust creates legitimate excitement around him that is concealed by his low production and intercept numbers. He will undoubtedly have to work on that for him to reach his true potential with Miami. Even if he doesn’t make a big win, he could start to establish himself as a solid backup option to pick up in the later rounds of the draft.
The thing about the Dolphins QB is that his upside lacks hard evidence. All the pieces are there but can he put them together? Tua Tagovailoa has the potential to be one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2022 season. Fantasy football managers should take note and keep it in mind when draft day rolls around.